Card payments are a core engine of retail, and often a true business driver.
That’s why I always track the market leaders, Visa and Mastercard. Their latest numbers are especially interesting, so I took a closer look.
Visa and Mastercard, the dominant forces in global payments, released their most recent earnings in late October 2025, Visa’s fiscal Q4 (ending September 30, 2025) on October 28, and Mastercard’s calendar Q3 on October 30.
Both companies demonstrated resilience amid economic uncertainties, driven by surging cross-border volumes, AI-enhanced fraud prevention, and digital adoption. Visa’s results reflect a fiscal year-end, while Mastercard’s are mid-year, but the periods overlap enough for comparison.
Visa’s Fiscal Q4 2025 Results
- Revenue: $10.7 billion, up 12% YoY, surpassing estimates. Growth was propelled by a 9% rise in payments volume, 10% in processed transactions, and 14% in cross-border volume.
- Net Income: $5.7 billion, up 19% YoY, with adjusted EPS at $2.98 (beating consensus by $0.01).
Key Highlights
- Full-year FY2025 revenue hit $40.0 billion, up 11%, with payments volume at $15.6 trillion (up 9%).
- Strong international momentum: Europe and CEMEA (Central Europe, Middle East, Africa) grew 18% and 22%, respectively.
- AI investments in fraud tools (e.g., Visa Advanced Authorization) reduced losses; tokenization now secures 60% of e-commerce transactions.
- Outlook: FY2026 revenue growth in low double-digits; dividend increased to $0.670 per share; $3.5 billion in share buybacks completed.
Challenges
U.S. growth slowed to 5% due to high interest rates; operating expenses rose 8% from tech and marketing spends.
Mastercard’s Calendar Q3 2025 Results
- Revenue: $8.6 billion (net revenue $7.4 billion after adjustments), up 17% YoY (13% adjusted for currency), exceeding expectations. Switched volume grew 11%, transactions 12%, and cross-border fees 17%.
- Net Income: $3.9 billion, up 19% YoY, with adjusted EPS at $4.38 (beating estimates by $0.06).
Key Highlights
- YTD revenue trends show mid-teens growth, with emerging markets like Latin America (up 20%) and Asia-Pacific (up 15%) leading.
- AI advancements in Cyber Secure prevented $20 billion in fraud; CEO Michael Miebach highlighted stablecoins and AI as future drivers.
- Expanded partnerships, e.g., with embedded finance platforms, boosting B2B payments.
- Outlook: Q4 revenue growth in mid-teens; $12 billion share repurchase program launched; dividend steady at $0.66 per share.
Challenges
Currency headwinds reduced growth by 1%; antitrust issues in the EU persist, though consumer spending held strong.
Comparison: Visa vs. Mastercard
Revenue Growth
Mastercard outperformed Visa (17% vs. 12% YoY), largely due to its heavier international tilt (65% of revenue from non-U.S. markets vs. Visa’s 50%), capturing stronger growth in Asia and Latin America. Visa’s larger base ($40B full-year vs. Mastercard’s projected ~$30B) makes percentage gains harder, but absolute revenue remains dominant.
Profitability and EPS
Both saw ~19% net income growth, but Mastercard’s EPS beat was slightly stronger ($0.06 vs. Visa’s $0.01). Visa edges in operating margins (around 65% vs. Mastercard’s 58%), benefiting from scale efficiencies.
Volume and Transactions
Visa processed more in absolute terms (52 billion transactions vs. Mastercard’s ~40 billion), but Mastercard grew faster (12% vs. 10%). Cross-border was a highlight for both (17% for Mastercard, 14% for Visa), driven by travel rebounds—Mastercard’s premium card focus amplified fees here.
Market Reaction
Visa’s stock rose ~4% post-earnings, Mastercard’s ~5%, reflecting investor optimism in Mastercard’s AI and stablecoin narratives. Visa’s market cap (~$550B) dwarfs Mastercard’s (~$450B), but Mastercard trades at a premium P/E ratio (38x vs. Visa’s 32x).
Strategic Edges
Both lean on AI for fraud (Visa reduced losses by 15%; Mastercard prevented $20B). Visa shines in partnerships (e.g., with Amazon), while Mastercard excels in value-added services like consulting and B2B innovations, giving it agility in emerging markets.
Risks and Outlook
Regulatory scrutiny (e.g., fee caps) hits both, but Mastercard’s currency exposure adds volatility. Both project low-to-mid teens growth for 2026, buoyed by digital shifts—expect AI and tokenization to be key differentiators.
Mastercard and Visa’s Situation in Retail
Mastercard and Visa are the undisputed leaders in the retail payments ecosystem, collectively processing over 80% of global card-based retail transactions. Their dominance stems from vast networks, advanced technology, and partnerships with retailers worldwide. However, the retail landscape is evolving rapidly with digital wallets, AI-driven personalization, and regulatory pressures, creating both opportunities and challenges. Below, I’ll analyze their current positions, market dynamics, strengths/weaknesses, recent developments, and future outlook, drawing from their Q3 2025 earnings and industry trends.
Market Share and Positioning in Retail
- Visa: Holds the largest share, processing about 65% of global retail card transactions by volume (e.g., $15.6 trillion in payments volume for FY2025). It’s deeply embedded in physical retail through point-of-sale (POS) integrations and contactless tech like Visa Tap to Phone. In e-commerce, Visa’s tokenization secures ~60% of online retail payments, reducing fraud in high-volume sectors like groceries and fashion.
- Mastercard: Commands ~25-30% of the market, focusing on premium and cross-border retail. It processes ~$9 trillion annually, with stronger growth in emerging markets (e.g., 20% YoY in Latin America). Mastercard excels in B2B retail supply chains and value-added services, like AI analytics for inventory optimization.
Together, they form a duopoly in retail payments, leaving little room for competitors like American Express (niche in luxury) or emerging fintechs (e.g., Stripe for online-only). In the U.S. retail sector alone, they handle 85% of debit/credit transactions, but face growing competition from buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) apps and digital currencies.